The good kind of methane
The influential energy analyst Michael Liebreich recently published another of his must-read assessments of the current state of the clean energy transition, exploring how to tackle the challenging last 10 per cent of energy system emissions.
This is the increasingly credible theory that we can remove around 90 per cent of the emissions from the energy system through relatively affordable and proven technologies in the form of wind, solar, batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and a side order of nuclear. The challenge comes with the last 10 per cent when technically immature and hugely costly solutions are required to either provide long duration energy storage (LDES) or deliver carbon capture solutions at scale, so as to push the last remaining unabated gas fired power plants off the grid.
The analysis - which is well worth reading - makes two compelling points. Firstly, perhaps we shouldn't worry quite so much about the last few per cent of emissions when the near term focus must be on delivering the proven solutions that can deliver deep decarbonisation. And secondly, maybe the solutions for mopping up those costly last emissions will not prove as daunting and expensive as feared by the time they are required.
"The challenge is very clear but it is also relatively limited," Liebreich writes. "How to clean up that remaining bit of flexible gas generation. Maybe, by then, those low-marginal-cost-grid-stability-supporting LDES solutions will have matured to the point they are competitive. But if not, then you’ll have to use clean molecules: perhaps clean hydrogen or one of its derivatives, but maybe just boring old biogas - after all, look how much of it little Denmark produces."
I was reminded today of the point about 'boring old biogas' by a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report, which suggests a lot of people may be underestimating the potential of the technology.
The update is based on a "first of a kind geospatial analysis", which provides detailed country and regional specific supply curves for over 30 different biogas feedstocks and their proximity to infrastructure such as roads, electricity grids, and gas pipelines.
It concludes there are significant sustainable feedstocks that would allow the biogas sector to continue to expand and displace demand for fossil gas. It estimates today's production potential for biogases and biomethane stands at almost 1,000 billion cubic metres (bcme), which equates to almost a quarter of the world's entire demand for conventional fossil gas. By 2050, based on current policy plans, production potential could increase to nearly 1,400bcme, by which time production costs could fall by 20 per cent as a result of improved crop yields, technological advancements, and increased economies of scale.
Biogas still typically costs more than fossil gas, but there is potential for a mix of policy support and technical innovations to deliver cost reductions, while at the same time fossil fuel prices remain notoriously volatile, even before you consider the whole carbon emissions thing.
In terms of investment, the IEA expects current policies and pledges worldwide to boost backing for biogases and biomethane to more than $15bn by 2050, up from just $2bn today, while a more advanced policy scenario could see investment reach $45bn by 2050.
Biogas remains too easily overlooked and continues to face opposition from some environmental campaigners, who are sceptical about its use of energy crops, the scalability of genuinely sustainable feedstocks, and the way biofuels have been used to justify continued aviation and gas power plant expansion.
But there is a lot of organic waste out there currently releasing methane emissions into the atmosphere. According to the IEA, India only utilises around five per cent of its biogas production potential at present and could match its entire fossil gas consumption using biogas. Many other developing economies are in a similar boat. Meanwhile, in industrialised economies huge amounts of food and agricultural waste goes untapped.
As the IEA highlights, this organic waste and well managed energy crops could yet be harvested using proven biogas technologies to slash emissions. The sector could even go a long way to solving the energy system's last 10 per cent challenge. There is nothing boring about that.
